There are reasons why oil companies have chosen Uganda. The country, with its 41 million inhabitants, is one of the more stable in the region. In the neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo, warlords and Ebola outbreaks have driven an estimated four million people to flee, and Uganda continues to absorb most of them. Rwanda is finally at peace after the genocide, but only because a questionable police state enforces it.
Uganda itself has suffered from civil wars and massacres since 1970; in the 1970s alone, dictator Idi Amin killed 300,000 opposition members and civil war raged in the north until the 2000s. President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni has been in office since 1986 and is determined to stay there with all his might.
The day before his last re-election in January 2021, the government blocked all important social media platforms. Opposition candidate Bobi Wine was arrested several times, and international election observers reported serious shortcomings. Compared to South Sudan and Congo next door, the country is nevertheless considered stable by many investors. The economy has been growing for several years - but at a very low level.
According to the UN Development Index, Uganda ranks 159 out of 189, the gross domestic product is just 822 dollars per capita, and almost 70 percent work in agriculture. Climate change is increasingly threatening harvests. In 2019, only 48 percent of children had their own blanket to sleep with.
The president blames the people themselves for their poverty. In several speeches, he calls them lazy and dishonest.
However, he assures the very same people that the oil will help the country to prosper. The state owns 15 percent of the project through the newly created Uganda National Oil Company. According to a spokeswoman, the Petrol Authority of Uganda (PAU) expects annual oil profits of 1.4 to 2.9 billion euros. By comparison, the total state budget of Uganda 20/21 was 11.8 billion euros. In addition, there would be tax revenues and positive effects for other industries, she says. One hundred and sixty thousand jobs are expected to be created and a small refinery will process 60,000 barrels per day to cover national needs. That’s a miniscule amount compared to the 2.1 million barrels consumed in Germany per day. But according to the spokeswoman, the 60,000 barrels will cover the entire demand for paraffin, diesel and petrol in Uganda in the future. It’s easy for the president to tout the pipeline as an opportunity.
But there is a problem- the area is not vacant. There are people living there, mostly from agriculture, as well as some very rare animals.
What does it mean to build oil production from scratch in such an area? Satellite images, 3D models of the area and precise data of the planned infrastructure provide an idea.